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Weak Dollar Undermines Bavaria’s Export Competitiveness

Bavarian exporters face rising dollar‐denominated costs as the currency’s slide driven by US fiscal and policy uncertainty persists

Overview

  • The US dollar has fallen roughly 12 percent against the euro since the start of 2025, data from the European Central Bank show.
  • Higher dollar prices are eroding Bavaria’s competitiveness in its biggest US export sectors, notably automobiles and machinery.
  • Many companies are only now unwinding currency hedges, so the full impact of the slide is not yet visible in trade figures.
  • Currencies pegged to the dollar have also weakened, broadening competitiveness challenges for exporters in Asia and beyond.
  • Financial markets anticipate further dollar softness as investors grow wary of US fiscal stability under President Trump.