Overview

• Economists project August payroll gains around 73,000–75,000 with the unemployment rate near 4.3%.
• The reading would extend a four-month stretch of sub-100,000 job growth, the softest run since early 2020.
• July revisions erased more than 250,000 prior job gains, followed by President Trump’s removal of BLS chief Erika McEntarfer.
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated at Jackson Hole that cuts are likely in September, while Governor Christopher Waller argues weak hiring warrants moving now.
• Additional gauges this week include JOLTS job openings, ADP private payrolls, and the Fed’s Beige Book, as legal uncertainty over Fed Board membership persists after the challenge to Lisa Cook’s removal.