Overview

• At the White House on August 8, Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev signed a pledge to avoid renewed conflict and initialed a 17-point normalization text that includes a U.S.-managed 27-mile TRIPP corridor linking Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan under Armenian sovereignty.
• Armenia–Türkiye contacts have accelerated, with envoys meeting in Yerevan on September 12 to discuss steps like restoring the Kars–Gyumri rail line, and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan saying he expects an Armenia–Azerbaijan treaty in the first half of next year followed by Turkish normalization.
• Azerbaijan’s president says he will not sign or ratify the treaty until Armenia changes its constitution to remove language tied to Nagorno-Karabakh, while Yerevan signals a referendum would come after parliamentary elections scheduled for June 2026.
• The provisional framework omits provisions for displaced persons’ returns and wartime accountability as Baku tries Armenian detainees it labels criminals, fueling sharp criticism from Armenian diaspora leaders who describe the deal as capitulation.
• Key TRIPP details such as route and security remain unsettled despite recent border visits by deputy prime ministers, and analysts say sustained U.S.–EU engagement is needed as both parties seek to limit Russia’s role and navigate potential spoilers.