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Warsh Edges Ahead in Fed Chair Odds as Hassett Pledges Fed Independence

A nomination is expected early 2026 with investors tracking signals for the path of rate cuts after last week’s quarter‑point move.

Overview

  • Kevin Hassett said on CBS that President Trump’s views would have “no weight” in FOMC decisions, stressing the Fed’s committee process and data‑driven consensus.
  • Prediction markets flipped, with Kalshi showing Kevin Warsh narrowly ahead in the mid‑40% range and Hassett near 40% after Hassett traded above 80% earlier this month.
  • CNBC and other outlets reported pushback from figures close to Trump and some investors concerned Hassett is too close to the White House, boosting Warsh’s standing.
  • Trump told the Wall Street Journal his choice is between Hassett and Warsh and said the next chair should consult him on rates; he met Warsh at the White House last week.
  • The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.5%–3.75% last week; Jerome Powell remains chair until May 2026 as Treasury‑led vetting continues toward an early‑2026 nomination.