Overview

• The peer-reviewed Nature Communications study finds roughly 9% fewer mountain ash trees for every 1°C of warming.
• Under a ~3°C rise by 2080, researchers project about a 24–25% decline in tree density relative to pre‑industrial conditions.
• The analysis draws on nearly 50 years of monitoring in Victoria’s Central Highlands, with some plots tracked since 1947 by state agencies.
• Authors warn the forests could shift from carbon sinks to net sources as mortality and decomposition increase, with bushfire losses not included in the projections.
• Researchers flag likely impacts on Melbourne’s water yield and suggest ecological thinning as a potential adaptation, while urging carbon-planting schemes to account for lower future carrying capacity.