Overview
- Germany is experiencing dry, sunny days with unusually mild highs largely between 13 and 18 degrees and locally near 20, while nights turn cold with ground frost and fog, according to the DWD.
- Temperatures are forecast to ease through the week with increasing low cloud and stubborn fog, and many areas trending toward grey conditions into the weekend.
- Model guidance for November 16–18 shows two scenarios: a southward Arctic plunge that could trigger early snow at low elevations or a push of the cold air east into Poland, the Baltics and Scandinavia.
- Recent updates, including ECMWF runs and commentary from Dominik Jung, reduce the likelihood of a strong nationwide cold snap in the near term, especially in NRW.
- The current blocking pattern is also tied to repeated heavy convective rain in parts of the Mediterranean, with modeled bursts exceeding 100 liters per square meter.