Overview
- Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday he is inclined to support keeping the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% if August inflation shows continued progress.
- Waller made clear his vote is conditional and that a hotter-than-expected August print would lead him to consider a quarter-point rate hike at the Sept. 15–16 meeting.
- New York Fed President John Williams echoed a wait-and-see posture and said he sees inflation trending down slowly but will be guided by the incoming data.
- Financial markets have responded to officials’ comments by repricing the odds of a September move to roughly the 50–60% range, shifting Treasury yields and borrowing costs.
- The near-term trigger is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index on Sept. 10 and consumer price index on Sept. 11, which policymakers will use to judge whether recent tariffs and energy price effects are fading or persisting.