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yesterday

Waller Presses for September Rate Cut as Fed Splits Over Next Steps

Markets now price a near-certain quarter-point cut in September.

Image
The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Building in Washington, DC, in June 2023.
The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. REUTERS/Sarah Silbiger/File Photo
Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey looks on during the Bank of England financial stability report press conference at the Bank of England, in London, Britain August 7, 2025. Jordan Pettitt/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo

Overview

  • Investors assign roughly a 90% probability to a quarter-point reduction at the Sept. 16–17 FOMC meeting.
  • Fed Governor Christopher Waller urged starting cuts this month and said multiple reductions over the next three to six months remain possible depending on data.
  • St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said policy is in the right place, flagged downside risks to jobs, and described tariff-driven inflation as likely to fade within two to three quarters.
  • Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said inflation remains the primary concern but judged a single 25-basis-point cut this year as appropriate, reflecting wider caution among some policymakers.
  • The Fed’s Beige Book found activity and employment mostly unchanged with modest price gains, while White House moves to oust Governor Lisa Cook and speed Stephen Miran’s confirmation have sharpened concerns about central bank independence.