Overview

• The S&P 500 and Dow Jones closed at record levels, with all three major U.S. indexes advancing despite the federal government closure.
• ADP reported a 32,000 drop in private payrolls for September, the largest decline since March 2023, prompting a pullback in Treasury yields and stronger market bets on Federal Reserve cuts.
• A Republican-backed funding bill failed to secure the 60 Senate votes needed, triggering a partial shutdown that began as the new fiscal year started.
• The shutdown threatens to delay key releases such as nonfarm payrolls and could furlough large numbers of federal workers, with the CBO estimating about 750,000 affected and the White House warning of imminent layoffs.
• Stock moves were mixed beyond the indexes, with Nike jumping after an earnings beat, Fortress Biotech slumping on an FDA Complete Response Letter, and Mexican equities falling on weaker remittances and global risk cues.