Overview
- A Bloomberg survey of 21 strategists shows no one expects a 2026 S&P 500 decline, with an average year-end gain near 9%.
- Published targets cluster between 7,100 and 7,700, including Yardeni at 7,700, JPMorgan at 7,500, CIBC’s Christopher Harvey at 7,450, and Bank of America at 7,100.
- The bullish stance leans on continued AI investment and resilient earnings after a volatile 2025 that ultimately delivered a strong rebound.
- Gains remain highly concentrated, with five large tech firms accounting for nearly half of this year’s S&P 500 advance as hyperscalers pour money into data centers and chips.
- Strategists still flag sizable risks, including a potential AI bust, unexpected Fed policy, tariff escalations involving Canada or Mexico, and recession scenarios that Bank of America says could mean a 20% drop versus up to 25% upside if earnings beat.