Overview
- Most major houses project further S&P 500 gains in 2026, with an average year‑end target near 7,269 and published calls spanning roughly 7,100 to 8,100.
- Bank of America stands above consensus with U.S. real GDP growth at 2.4% Q4/Q4, China near 4.7%, S&P 500 EPS growth around 14%, and an index target of about 7,100.
- AI remains the core bull driver as hyperscalers plan more than $500 billion of capex next year, though several strategists question whether returns will justify the spending.
- Valuations sit near 22.4 times forward earnings by recent estimates, and Federal Reserve research suggests tariffs could trim annual GDP growth by roughly 0.3% to 0.5% over the next two years.
- A cooling labor market is a key risk, with BofA expecting job growth to slow to about 50,000 per month and unemployment drifting into the mid‑4% range, even as expected Fed cuts and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act provide support.