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Wall Street Reprices Tesla as an Autonomy Play, Not a Carmaker

A potential SpaceX listing could siphon Musk-focused capital from a stock priced largely for robotaxis, AI.

Overview

  • Tesla shares hit record levels this week as reports of driverless tests in Austin fueled bets on robotaxis, with the stock now trading at about 214 times forward earnings.
  • William Blair’s Jed Dorsheimer estimates autonomy makes up over 70% of Tesla’s value and pegs the core car business at roughly $30 to $40 per share.
  • Bank of America’s sum‑of‑the‑parts model assigns the bulk of value to Robotaxis, Full Self‑Driving and Optimus while giving core automotive a small slice, a shift echoed by Morgan Stanley and others.
  • California regulators ordered Tesla to clarify or remove “Autopilot” marketing within 90 days, underscoring legal and execution risks to the autonomy narrative.
  • SpaceX is planning an insider share sale valuing it near $800 billion, and talk of a possible IPO has prompted debate over whether Musk‑centric investors could rotate away from Tesla.