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Wall Street Raises AI Hardware Bets as Nvidia’s Blackwell Ramp and China Tariffs Come Into Focus

Fresh upgrades for Nvidia, Dell and AMD reflect confidence in hyperscaler demand ahead of Nvidia’s Feb. 25 earnings.

Overview

  • Wolfe Research named Nvidia its top AI idea for 2026 and said Blackwell is fully ramping with Rubin on track for a second‑half 2026 launch that targets roughly five times Blackwell’s inference performance.
  • Jefferies lifted its Nvidia price target and J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo reiterated Buy ratings, signaling expectations for continued growth across GPUs, networking and software tied to accelerating AI deployments.
  • Barclays upgraded Dell to Overweight and Goldman Sachs initiated at Buy as Dell targets about $9.4 billion of AI server shipments in Q4 and roughly $25 billion for the year, with operating margins holding in the mid‑single digits despite lower gross margins on AI racks.
  • KeyBanc upgraded AMD to Overweight, citing hyperscaler demand that has largely sold out its 2026 server CPU supply and forecasting $14–$15 billion in AI revenue supported by MI355 in the first half and a MI455 Helios ramp in the second half.
  • Wolfe flagged U.S. 25% tariff and export approval steps as a headwind to Nvidia’s H200 shipments to China—previously estimated by Nvidia at $2–$5 billion per quarter if approved—placing added emphasis on February guidance for Blackwell throughput, rack‑scale NVL72 mix and margins.