Overview

• U.S. futures are largely flat as investors await Wednesday’s release of July Fed meeting minutes and quarterly results from Walmart, Home Depot, Target and Lowe’s.
• The CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of a September rate cut have eased to about 85% following hotter-than-expected producer price data and mixed consumer inflation signals.
• Traders are watching for any new guidance in Powell’s Friday Jackson Hole address, where past speeches have signaled shifts in the Fed’s policy framework.
• The Trump administration recently expanded 50% steel and aluminum tariffs to include hundreds of derivative products, raising concern about price pass-through and margin pressures in upcoming retailer earnings.
• Bitcoin retreated about 7% from its peak to near $115,000 as investors weighed recent geopolitical meetings with Putin and Zelenskiy.