Overview

• Stocks capped their best week in five as the S&P 500 hovered just below a record, the Dow slipped 0.6%, and the Nasdaq set another closing high.
• Futures pricing points to roughly a 95% chance of a 25‑basis‑point reduction at the Sept. 17 Fed meeting, with investors watching the new Summary of Economic Projections for clues on the path ahead.
• Recent data bolstered dovish expectations: August CPI matched forecasts at 2.9% year over year with core at 3.1%, while initial jobless claims jumped to 263,000, a 3.75‑year high.
• The University of Michigan survey showed sentiment at the weakest since May and long‑run inflation expectations up to 3.9%, helping 10‑year Treasury yields rebound after briefly touching about 3.99%.
• Large‑cap tech and AI‑linked stocks continued to drive gains, even as traders flagged tariff policy and Fed guidance as key risks to a rally concentrated in a handful of market leaders.