Overview
- Johnson Associates forecasts the biggest bonus pool since 2021, marking a second consecutive annual increase.
- Equity sales and trading payouts are projected to rise 15% to 25%, while M&A advisory and equity underwriting are seen up 10% to 15%.
- The outlook credits record valuations, a clearing pipeline of stalled deals, and tariff-driven volatility that lifted trading revenues.
- Firms may reduce headcount by 10% to 20% over the next five years due to artificial intelligence, initially affecting entry-level roles and concentrating pay.
- Sector differences persist: asset and wealth management see mid-to-high single-digit gains, private equity and insurance rise up to 5%, and real estate remains flat as caution builds for 2026.