Overview

• VTB’s Dmitry Pyanov forecast a one‑to‑two‑meeting pause in the easing cycle to gauge how a planned VAT hike affects prices and inflation expectations.
• The Finance Ministry’s 2026 package proposes lifting VAT to 22% from 20% and revising taxation for bookmakers, with officials framing the measures as financing defense and security.
• Elvira Nabiullina said space remains to lower the key rate and signaled fresh guidance will be presented at the October 24 policy meeting.
• The share of cashless payments has reached 87.5%, and VTB’s Dmitry Breytenbikher expects cash withdrawals to fall about 5% in 2026 to 35.7 billion rubles as usage plateaus at nearly nine in ten purchases.
• The Bank of Russia said Visa and Mastercard cards issued domestically with expired certificates will continue to work without abrupt shutdowns, while officials noted most people hold up to five cards per bank and that no unified national card registry exists.