Overview

• Cemop’s Summer Barometer places the PP first in Murcia with 36.1% and 18 seats, Vox second with 27.9% and 13, and the PSOE third with 25.8% and 12.
• University of Murcia analysts say July incidents in Torre Pacheco and nearby towns abruptly shifted voter preferences, largely at the PP’s expense.
• A national Opina360 poll (Sept 25–30; 1,203 interviews) estimates PSOE at 129–130 seats, PP at 111, and Vox at 74, a tally that would hand PP and Vox a majority.
• The same survey finds roughly 57% favor calling elections if no 2026 budget is approved, with limited support for extending the legislature under rolled‑over accounts.
• Regional leaders reacted to the Murcia snapshot, with the PP stressing it remains the top vote‑getter and Vox asserting confidence it can reach first place in 2027.