Overview

• El Periódico’s GESOP poll reports a technical tie between PP and PSOE, with Vox as the only formation growing and the PP–Vox gap shrinking from 13 to about 3 points year over year.
• Despite PP losses, the combined PP–Vox tally would still secure a parliamentary majority.
• In Murcia, the Cemop barometer places Vox as the second force and estimates roughly 37,000 2023 PP voters now leaning to Vox, with most movement following the Torre Pacheco incidents last summer.
• Cemop microdata show the PP bleeding support among millennials and Gen Z, alongside high vote loyalty for Vox within those younger cohorts.
• Regional PP leaders describe the Murcia trend as temporary and rule out strategy changes, while analyses warn of growing polarization that risks leaving the PP squeezed between PSOE and Vox.