Overview
- The DeZIM study, reported Monday, compared the same respondents between winter 2023/24 and winter 2024/25 and measured party 'wählbarkeit' on a 1–7 scale rather than asking for vote intention.
- People with roots in Turkey, the Middle East or North Africa showed the steepest declines in party acceptability with examples including the SPD falling from 71% to 60% and the CDU/CSU from 67% to 50% in that group.
- The share of respondents in the Turkey/MENA group who judged none of the surveyed parties as acceptable rose from 7% to 19%, a near-tripling that researchers say could signal disengagement.
- Across all migrant-origin respondents the AfD was most often categorically rejected (about 65%), but respondents with origins in the former Soviet Union reported higher acceptability for the AfD (45%) and for CDU/CSU (62%).
- DeZIM authors and commentators warn against causal claims because the panel used 2,631 respondents with small origin-based subgroups (for example ~185 in the Turkey/MENA group), and they call for targeted outreach and follow-up research to address representation gaps and possible turnout effects.