Overview

• A New York Times analysis of L2 data shows Democrats lost about 2.1 million registrants from 2020 to 2024 in the 30 states plus D.C. that track party, while Republicans gained roughly 2.4 million, cutting Democrats’ advantage from nearly 11 points to just over 6.
• Democrats lost ground in every tracked state, with especially large erosion in battlegrounds including Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
• For the first time since 2018, more new voters registered as Republicans than Democrats in 2024, as Democrats’ share among men and voters under 45 fell sharply.
• Since Election Day 2024, snapshots cited in the same analysis indicate about 160,000 fewer registered Democrats and roughly 200,000 more registered Republicans.
• Reporting points to GOP registration drives and Democratic reliance on nonpartisan nonprofits, alongside internal alarm and fundraising shortfalls, as factors shaping the trend.