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Vitalik Buterin Defends Prediction Markets as Clearer, More Accountable Than Social Media

His remarks coincide with Polymarket’s phased U.S. relaunch following a CFTC settlement.

Overview

  • Buterin says tying money to opinions creates structured accountability that social platforms lack.
  • He argues bounded 0–1 pricing curbs reflexivity, hype cycles, and pump‑and‑dump behavior seen in traditional markets.
  • He acknowledges theoretical incentives to cause harm but contends small markets on large events offer too little volume to motivate interference.
  • He cites personal use of market odds to check alarming headlines and calibrate emotional responses.
  • Polymarket resumed access for U.S. users in early December after a 2022 CFTC case and $1.4 million fine, starting with a phased rollout of sports contracts.