Vistra Shares Rise on 20-Year Meta Nuclear Deal as UBS Lifts Target

UBS raised its target to $233 following Vistra’s 8-K that quantifies long-term cash-flow gains from the Meta nuclear agreement.

Overview

Vistra signed a 20-year agreement to supply 2,609 MW of carbon-free power from its PJM nuclear fleet to Meta, including output from planned uprates.
The company’s 8-K outlines 13–17% cash accretion versus 2026 guidance and about $800 million of potential nuclear-related EBITDA, with 48% of the fleet still uncontracted.
Shares closed up about 6.6% at $180.18 after the announcement, reflecting renewed investor confidence in long-duration contracted revenue.
Analyst views diverged as UBS maintained a Buy and raised its target to $233, Scotiabank lifted its target to $293, and Jefferies set a lower target of $191 on PJM market uncertainties.
Vistra also advanced its pending $4.7 billion purchase of Cogentrix’s 10 gas plants totaling roughly 5,500 MW and plans to close a $2.25 billion secured notes offering on January 22 to support the deal.