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Vistra Repositions for Data‑Center Demand as Shares Slip Below $170

An S&P upgrade alongside extensive 2026 hedging reduces perceived power‑price risk.

Overview

  • Morgan Stanley lifted its price target to $228 on December 16 as analyst David Arcaro said data centers will drive the next phase of growth with added momentum expected in 2026.
  • S&P Global Ratings raised Vistra to investment grade on December 3 and noted roughly 96% of expected 2026 generation is hedged.
  • About 35% of Vistra’s generation sits in the PJM grid, which S&P highlighted as benefiting from accelerating data‑center demand.
  • Vistra’s latest quarter missed expectations, yet adjusted EBITDA rose 9.9% year over year and net income reached $652 million.
  • The stock remains up year to date but trades below $170 with a premium price‑to‑earnings ratio near 58 after pulling back from a $219 high, as investors weigh valuation against nuclear and clean‑energy growth plans, including Vistra Zero.