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4h ago

Virginia Governor’s Race Tightens as GOP Unleashes Statewide Ad Targeting Spanberger

Republicans are leveraging the Jay Jones text scandal with a seven-figure buy featuring Spanberger’s debate refusal to retract her endorsement.

BUENA VISTA, VIRGINIA - SEPTEMBER 01: Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, prays during the invocation at the 54th Annual Buena Vista Labor Day Festival on September 01, 2025 in Buena Vista, Virginia. The Commonwealth of Virginia will hold its off-year election for governor and other statewide offices on November 4. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)
A person wrapped in the transgender flag during a rally in Wilmington. (Madeline Gray for The Assembly)
Former Representative Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee in Virginia, attends a Labor Day event in Buena Vista, Virginia on September 1, 2025.
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Overview

  • New partisan surveys show Democrat Abigail Spanberger still leading but by shrinking margins, including 47.7% to 45.1% in a Trafalgar poll within the margin of error and a 49.2% to 45.2% Cygnal result.
  • Winsome Earle-Sears’ campaign launched a seven-figure “Trigger” ad using a debate clip of Spanberger declining to say whether she would pull her endorsement of Democratic attorney general nominee Jay Jones.
  • Jones’ support in the attorney general race fell from 48.8% to 43.1% in Trafalgar polling as Republican incumbent Jason Miyares rose to 48.9%, with pollsters saying the scandal is weighing on Democrats down-ballot.
  • Education and LGBTQ+ issues remain central as Earle-Sears spotlights transgender access and parental rights while Spanberger argues for local decision-making and releases an ad highlighting Earle-Sears saying firing gay people is “not discrimination.”
  • Early voting has been underway since Sept. 19, and the campaigns are intensifying negative advertising and spending across Virginia heading into the Nov. 4 election.