Overview

• Roanoke College now shows Abigail Spanberger leading Winsome Earle‑Sears 46% to 39%, down from a 43% to 26% edge in May, with 14% undecided and 1% backing someone else.
• Spanberger retains a major financial advantage, reporting about $27 million raised with roughly $15 million on hand versus Earle‑Sears’s approximately $11 million raised and $4 million cash.
• Debate over K–12 policies intensified after the Education Department warned five Northern Virginia districts that federal funding is at risk over unresolved transgender student investigations.
• Earle‑Sears has pushed the schools issue, criticizing local policies and speaking at an Arlington School Board meeting that drew a protest sign condemned by Democrats and Republicans.
• GOP operatives express cautious optimism about competitiveness even as analysts flag Roanoke’s turnout weighting, and the poll also shows tighter contests for lieutenant governor (38%–35%) and attorney general (41%–38%).