Overview

• Republican Winsome Earle-Sears rolled out a statewide TV and digital ad using a clip of Abigail Spanberger declining to say whether Jay Jones should withdraw after his violent messages were published.
• Recent partisan surveys show a tighter contest, including Trafalgar’s 47.7%–45.1% finding for Spanberger within the margin of error, while public polls like CNU and Emerson have shown larger Democratic leads.
• Jones’ 2022 texts fantasizing about killing GOP House Speaker Todd Gilbert continue to damage Democrats, and Spanberger refused at the Oct. 9 debate to retract her endorsement, saying voters will decide.
• Earle-Sears is centering transgender and parental-rights messaging with ads about girls’ locker rooms and sports, as the campaign turns more negative with both sides casting the other as aligned with unpopular national figures.
• Analysts say education-focused attacks are less potent than in 2021 as voters weigh economic concerns and the federal shutdown’s fallout, while early voting proceeds and both campaigns escalate their spending.