Overview
- Recent surveys diverge within margins of error, with Emerson/The Hill, Quantus, and InsiderAdvantage showing narrow Jay Jones edges while Trafalgar places Jason Miyares slightly ahead.
- Polling snapshots cited include Jones 49% to 47% in Emerson/The Hill, 47.4% to 46.9% in Quantus, 49% to 47% in InsiderAdvantage, and Miyares 46.3% to 45.5% in Trafalgar.
- The contest drew national attention after leaked 2022 texts attributed to Jones referenced violence toward a former House speaker, prompting his public apology during an October debate.
- Miyares, Virginia’s first Hispanic attorney general elected in 2021, seeks a second term highlighting public safety and prosecutorial reform, while Jones casts the office as a legal role and ties Miyares to President Donald Trump.
- Prediction market Polymarket showed a same‑day swing in trading, moving from Miyares favored in the morning to Jones favored by late afternoon, reflecting shifting expectations rather than results.