Overview

• Jason Miyares and Jay Jones face off at 6 p.m. at the University of Richmond in their only debate, drawing unusually broad interest.
• Leaked 2022 messages showed Jones writing "three people, two bullets" about former House Speaker Todd Gilbert and referencing harm to Gilbert’s children; Jones has issued public apologies, including in a WRIC interview.
• Republicans, including President Donald Trump, have urged Jones to quit the race, while many Democrats criticized the texts but stayed with him, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Jones should remain after apologizing.
• Post-scandal indicators shifted: a Trafalgar poll (Oct. 8–10) put Miyares up 49%–43%, Decision Desk HQ’s average shows a 46.4% tie, and Polymarket and Kalshi betting odds now give Miyares the advantage.
• Miyares holds a fundraising edge per the Virginia Public Access Project and has aired ads on the controversy, with early voting underway and analysts warning the episode could dampen Democratic turnout or spur split-ticket voting.