Overview
- A Public Policy Polling survey for Alex Vindman shows Ashley Moody leading 43% to 40% among 574 registered voters, within the poll’s 4.1-point margin of error.
- Polling analysts caution that the internal used voter recall of the 2024 presidential vote to weight the sample to Trump +13, which can be less reliable than weighting to the state’s voter file.
- Independent surveys from Emerson College and the University of North Florida found Moody up by 8 and 7 points, respectively, using likely-voter screens.
- The pollster’s memo says 43% of voters have no opinion of Moody, signaling an appointed incumbent who remains less defined to many voters.
- Cook Political Report rates the seat Safe Republican and Sabato’s Crystal Ball calls it Likely Republican, and Vindman still has not secured the Democratic nomination.