Overview
- Operational agencies including NOAA and the Deutscher Wetterdienst now judge a very strong — possibly record‑breaking — El Niño as likely, with NOAA putting the probability above 90 percent.
- Satellite and in‑situ measurements show sea‑surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific already exceeding +2°C and locally topping +3°C versus the 1991–2020 baseline.
- Forecast models converge on a peak in October–December 2026 with high chance the event will persist into early 2027, raising the prospect of sustained global circulation changes.
- Near‑term, concrete signals are appearing: the Panama Canal authority will cut bookable transits from September because of water constraints and governments and farmers are issuing warnings about drought, heavy rain and crop risks that could lift prices for sugar, coffee and cocoa.
- Europe’s direct response is uncertain because teleconnections vary, though some models project a milder, wetter and stormier winter for parts of Germany and experts warn that a strong El Niño on top of human warming makes 2027 likely to be among the hottest years on record.