Overview
- Official agencies say El Niño has strengthened and now carries more than a 90% chance of being a very‑strong event this Northern Hemisphere winter.
- Models and international forecasters assign roughly a 75% chance the event could exceed the strength of any El Niño since 1950, raising the possibility of unusually large global impacts.
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center maps shift December–February prospects toward above‑normal temperatures across much of the northern U.S. and wetter‑than‑normal precipitation from Southern California through the Southwest, the southern Plains, the Gulf Coast and Florida.
- Scientists warn that human‑driven warming and the event’s eastern‑Pacific origin have changed ENSO teleconnections, so historical analogs may be unreliable and some regional impacts remain uncertain.
- Despite that uncertainty, experts say the strong signal gives emergency managers, utilities and food planners more lead time to prepare for floods, droughts and storm risks, while reminding communities that impacts will vary by region and could persist into next year.