Overview
- NOAA, the World Meteorological Organization and Peru's ENFEN updated forecasts in early October to say a very strong or potentially record-setting El Niño is now likely.
- Peru's CENEPRED and Plan International used recent data to mark about 7.95 million people in districts at very high flood risk and estimate 2.3 million children would be exposed to intense rains and floods.
- CENEPRED's new scenarios identify roughly 147,055 km — about 84.17% of the national road network — at high or very high risk from landslides, debris flows and related damage this coming summer.
- Authorities and organizations have moved from warning to action: Peru has published district-level risk maps, California has activated emergency preparedness and cities like Los Angeles are clearing drains and reinforcing slopes, while banks and business groups advise firms to secure logistics and cash flow.
- Forecasters project a peak around December 2026 with effects that could extend into early 2027, raising risks for crops, fisheries, health services and infrastructure and increasing the chance of floods, droughts, fires and coral bleaching in different regions.