Overview
- Global forecasters at the WMO and NOAA say a very strong El Niño is now established and is very likely to persist into early 2027, driven by exceptionally warm tropical Pacific sea‑surface temperatures.
- The UAE’s National Centre of Meteorology says the country should escape the worst impacts but that the chance of increased rainfall and occasional intense downpours is higher over the identified autumn and spring windows.
- Climate scientists explain El Niño changes large‑scale pressure patterns, moisture transport and the subtropical jet, which together raise the probability of wetter cool‑season conditions in the Gulf but do not guarantee heavier rain.
- Experts warn that very intense short‑duration downpours are more likely under a strong El Niño and that dry soils, mountain wadis and existing drainage shortcomings can turn bursts of rain into flash floods.
- Past 2024 floods led UAE authorities to invest in drainage and preparedness, and officials are emphasizing round‑the‑clock monitoring, targeted warnings and following official forecasts rather than viral claims.