Overview
- Forecasters said on Monday that sea surface and subsurface heat in the tropical Pacific show a very strong El Niño forming that is likely to strengthen into late 2026 and early 2027.
- The developing event tilts the odds toward a warmer, lower‑snow winter for Canada’s Prairies, which could reduce spring streamflow and raise drought and wildfire risk next year.
- On the U.S. West Coast, forecasters warn that El Niño combined with king tides and higher sea levels will raise the chance of coastal flooding, erosion, and damage to roads, homes and drainage systems.
- Indonesia, parts of Southeast Asia and sections of Australia and New Zealand face higher odds of a longer dry season and increased wildfire risk, and fires are already burning on Sumatra and Borneo.
- Local officials are running scenario exercises and forming working groups to find gaps, but reporting shows persistent shortfalls in maintenance, funding and protections for vulnerable people such as people experiencing homelessness, older adults and those with disabilities.