Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization and partner centres declared El Niño 'firmly established' in mid‑August and say models show it is very likely to persist through February 2027 with a peak toward the end of 2026.
- Forecasters and scientists describe the event as exceptionally large, with the Met Office warning it could be the strongest in living memory and researchers linking the extra Pacific heat to background global warming.
- UK officials have moved from assessment to public preparation, with Environment Secretary Dame Angela Eagle urging households to keep at least three days of food and drinking water and Met Office forecasters warning of well‑above‑average rainfall for parts of the country.
- Early signals of crop stress have appeared in vulnerable regions and analysts, including Goldman Sachs, warn the El Niño could push up global food commodity prices and cause modest increases in European food costs.
- El Niño is a Pacific ocean‑atmosphere pattern that alters global circulation, so forecasters say governments, utilities and aid agencies should monitor flood, drought and food‑supply risks and prepare emergency and relief plans now.