Overview
- NOAA and operational forecasts give a greater than 90 percent chance that a very strong El Niño is underway and that it will likely peak in late autumn or early winter 2026/27.
- A new Science paper using about 1,000 years of coral records finds ENSO variability has risen sharply since the late 19th century and that the past roughly 40 years show unusually strong El Niño events compared with the last millennium.
- Study authors and several climate scientists say the signal is consistent with amplification by human-caused warming, but experts note important limits including that the coral data are regionally concentrated around the Galápagos and that climate models do not yet reproduce all observed Pacific patterns.
- A very strong El Niño on top of already-warm oceans raises the odds of a temporary global temperature boost and more extreme storms, floods and droughts in many regions, which could worsen agricultural stress and flood risk for vulnerable communities.
- European and German winter impacts are not determined by El Niño alone because North Atlantic pressure patterns and the stratospheric polar vortex control regional outcomes, with current seasonal models favoring a milder, wetter start but still leaving the door open for late cold spells.