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Venture Firm’s Bold GTA VI Forecast Draws Skepticism Over Realism

Industry experts question the feasibility of Rockstar’s revenue targets given console install base limits combined with premium pricing assumptions.

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Overview

  • Venture capital firm Konvoy projects that Grand Theft Auto VI will generate $7.6 billion in revenue within its first 60 days and sell roughly 85 million copies.
  • The forecast suggests that Take-Two Interactive could recoup its estimated $2 billion development cost within 30 days of launch.
  • Analyst Daniel Ahmad of Niko Partners describes the projection as aggressive and highlights that it implies more than 65 percent of PS5 and Xbox Series X|S owners would need to purchase the game in two months.
  • The estimate assumes an $80 price point and roughly a 90 percent attach rate on the combined 110 million consoles.
  • GTA VI remains on track for its May 26, 2026 release exclusively on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S and will introduce new user-generated content tools for creators to build and monetize custom experiences.