Overview
- Industry consultant Enverus projects output could reach 1.5 million barrels per day by 2035 and, in a bullish scenario, 3 million within a decade, while saying the ordered transfer of 30–50 million barrels to U.S. control will not move global markets.
- API and Rystad Energy say a sustained revival requires clear legal frameworks and security for investments, with Rystad estimating about $183 billion over 15 years to return production toward 3 million barrels per day.
- Executives voiced caution at a recent White House outreach, with ExxonMobil’s CEO calling Venezuela “uninvestable,” ConocoPhillips citing past expropriation losses, Chevron saying it can quickly lift its 240,000 bpd, and Hilcorp expressing readiness to help rebuild.
- Venezuela still holds roughly 303 billion barrels of proven reserves but produces under 1 million bpd, constrained by extra‑heavy crude, loss of expertise after the PDVSA purge, years of sanctions, and decayed infrastructure including pipelines and refineries running far below capacity.
- Near‑term gains of roughly 100,000–200,000 bpd appear possible from existing operators, while JPMorgan scenarios suggest 1.3–1.4 million bpd within two years under stability and sanctions relief, with analysts emphasizing limited immediate impact on global supply.