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VDA Projects 2026 EV Sales Jump in Germany as Brussels Mulls Easing 2035 Ban

Carmakers say the rebound depends on swift German subsidies, with the combustion phase‑out under review in Brussels.

Overview

  • Germany’s auto lobby VDA forecasts about 693,000 new battery‑electric cars in 2026 and nearly one million electrified vehicles in total, with overall new car registrations rising 2% to 2.9 million.
  • The outlook is conditional on rapid rollout of Berlin’s new private purchase grants, outlined at €3,000 per car with income caps and child top‑ups from a €3 billion fund, with the start date still to be set.
  • Reports say the European Commission is preparing an industry support package that could relax or delay the 2035 combustion‑engine phase‑out, with a presentation tentatively eyed for mid‑December but possibly slipping to January.
  • Germany and six EU countries have urged rule changes to allow hybrids and other low‑emission technologies after 2035, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz has formally asked to permit plug‑in hybrids and range‑extender models beyond that date.
  • Recent German registration data show shifting market dynamics, with BYD’s Seal U leading November plug‑in hybrids and overall BEV registrations up 58.5% year over year, while Tesla’s Model Y has fallen out of the top 10 for 2025 to date.