Overview
- The Ipsos Doxa poll published June 27 put Roberto Vannacci's Futuro Nazionale at about 6 percent and the Lega at 5.6 percent, and showed a scenario where adding Vannacci would lift the traditional centre-right to 47.7 percent.
- Matteo Salvini publicly ruled out an alliance with Vannacci at the Nexus event, saying 'with Vannacci at today evidently no,' while hours later Vannacci in Vicenza said he was 'absolutely available' to join the centre-right if his 'red lines' are respected.
- The pollster said Vannacci's gains come largely from voters who formerly backed the Lega and Fratelli d’Italia and from some abstentionists, a shift that is drawing concern inside Forza Italia and parts of the Lega.
- Other recent polls give different point estimates but show the same direction of change, creating uncertainty for Giorgia Meloni's path to re-election, candidate selection, and how the coalition will position on immigration and security.
- What to watch next is whether centre-right leaders accept Vannacci into their pact, which could change campaign messaging and parliamentary arithmetic in 2027, and whether Vannacci's ties to international right-wing networks will shape media and party responses.