Overview
- The Ipsos Doxa survey published June 27 found Futuro Nazionale at 6% and the Lega at 5.6%, marking the first time Ipsos places Roberto Vannacci’s party ahead of Salvini’s.
- Under the poll’s numbers the current governing center‑right totals 41.7% while a progressive bloc reaches 44.5%, and adding Futuro Nazionale would lift the conservative bloc to 47.7%.
- Government approval rose to 42% and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s personal rating climbed to 44%, showing higher leader approval even as party vote shares shift.
- Ipsos analysts say Vannacci’s gains largely come from voters defecting from the Lega and Fratelli d’Italia and from a small number of former abstainers, while the undecided/abstention pool has grown to about 41.1%, increasing volatility.
- Lega leader Matteo Salvini publicly downplayed concern, but the poll points to likely talks over alliances and candidate strategy as parties reposition ahead of the expected autumn 2027 election.