Overview
- VanEck models a 15% annualized return to 2050 if Bitcoin settles 5–10% of global trade and reaches roughly 2.5% of central bank reserves.
- The scenario range spans a ~$130,000 bear case (≈2% CAGR) to a $53.4 million bull case tied to 20% of international trade and 10% of domestic GDP.
- The firm recommends a strategic 1–3% allocation for diversified portfolios, with higher allocations possible for risk‑tolerant investors seeking hedge value against monetary debasement.
- Bitcoin trades near $90,000 with mixed signals as some analysts see a potential move to ~$103k–$105k in weeks, while others flag key downside levels around $65k and $45k.
- VanEck estimates long‑run volatility at 40–70% and links short‑term swings to derivatives; on‑chain RUP near 0.43 suggests the market has not reached a cycle top.