Overview
- The base case models roughly 15% annualized returns with Bitcoin handling 5–10% of international trade and comprising about 2.5% of central‑bank reserves by mid‑century.
- Alternative scenarios range from a bear case near $130,000 by 2050 to a hyper‑bitcoinization estimate around $53.4 million per coin.
- VanEck suggests strategic allocations of 1–3% for most diversified portfolios, with up to 20% considered for investors with higher risk tolerance.
- The analysis anticipates 40–70% annualized volatility, notes recent realized volatility near 27%, and finds low correlation to stocks, bonds and gold with a long‑term negative relationship to the U.S. dollar.
- The report presents Bitcoin as a potential non‑sovereign reserve and settlement asset over decades rather than a short‑term price call, with spot prices currently near $88,000–$91,000.