VanEck Sees Bitcoin Entering 2026 in Consolidation, Not a Melt-Up or Crash

Overview

• VanEck says realized volatility has roughly halved versus the prior cycle, implying a smaller next drawdown and supporting a digestion phase under its GEO framework.
• Corporate Digital Asset Treasuries added about 42,000 BTC in December as ETP investors trimmed exposure, signaling a shift toward institutional balance‑sheet accumulation.
• Bitcoin’s network hashrate fell roughly 4% in December and miner breakevens tightened, a stress setup VanEck notes has historically preceded positive forward returns.
• Miners are accelerating a pivot into AI/HPC data‑center revenue with sector consolidation expected; cited examples include Hut 8’s 15‑year, roughly $7 billion compute deal backed by Anthropic/Fluidstack.
• VanEck flags quantum security as an active, non‑immediate risk likely to prompt visible coordination across the industry.