Overview
- VanEck models a 15% compound annual return to 2050, assuming Bitcoin settles 5–10% of global trade and reaches roughly 2.5% of central bank reserves.
- Scenario range spans a bear case near $130,000 by 2050 to a hyper-bitcoinization bull case around $53.4 million per coin.
- The firm advises strategic allocations of about 1–3% for diversified portfolios, with up to 20% historically optimizing risk-adjusted returns for very risk‑tolerant investors.
- VanEck frames Bitcoin as a potential non‑sovereign reserve and monetary hedge, with long‑run volatility modeled at 40–70% and short‑term swings driven largely by derivatives; RUP sits near 0.43 with funding around 4.9%.
- Near term, Bitcoin trades around $90,000 with ETF outflows and thin liquidity, as views split between upside cases from Bernstein and Coinbase and Fidelity’s caution that a move toward $65,000–$75,000 remains possible.