Overview
- CNN’s Harry Enten highlighted a University of New Hampshire poll showing JD Vance at 51% among likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire, an unprecedented early lead for a non-incumbent since at least 1980, with prediction markets putting his nomination odds near 48%.
- National measures paint a weaker picture, with a CNN poll finding only 22% of Republicans currently backing Vance and 64% naming no preferred 2028 candidate, while a recent Gallup reading placed his approval at 39%.
- Trump has told Chief of Staff Susie Wiles that a third term “isn’t possible,” yet he has not publicly anointed a successor, keeping the post-Trump pecking order unsettled.
- Turning Point USA, now led by Erika Kirk, formally endorsed Vance and reported an 84% straw-poll showing at AmericaFest, as the group readies grassroots operations including plans for organizing in Iowa.
- Internal rifts and outside power brokers complicate Vance’s path, with Steve Bannon questioning his toughness, Gen Z right-wing streamers saying they may not support him, and reporting that Elon Musk could act as an unpredictable kingmaker.