Overview
- Prediction markets now give JD Vance roughly a 48% chance of the 2028 GOP nomination, and a UNH poll shows him at 51% in New Hampshire, far ahead of the field, according to CNN’s Harry Enten.
- Turning Point USA, led by Erika Kirk, has endorsed Vance, touted a conference straw poll showing 84% support, and pledged grassroots organizing including plans to build in Iowa.
- National indicators are softer for Vance, with a CNN survey finding only 22% of Republicans naming him and 64% saying they have no specific preference, while Gallup pegs his approval around 39%.
- Trump has told Chief of Staff Susie Wiles that a third term is not possible, yet he has not named a successor as MAGA insiders wage a proxy fight that includes criticism of Vance from Steve Bannon.
- Marco Rubio has signaled he would support Vance rather than challenge him, and Vance remains undeclared for 2028, saying he will focus on the 2026 midterms before deciding.