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5d ago

Vance Holds Slim Edge Over Buttigieg, Ocasio-Cortez and Newsom in 2028 Poll

Roughly 13 to 15 percent of voters remain undecided in the Emerson College survey, highlighting the potential swing in an election still three years away.

Vice President JD Vance participates in a debate in New York City on October 1, 2024.
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JD Vance, Newsom, AOC, Buttigieg

Overview

  • Vance leads Pete Buttigieg by one point (44% to 43%), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez by three points (44% to 41%) and Gavin Newsom by three points (45% to 42%).
  • The Emerson College survey polled 1,400 U.S. voters from July 21 to July 22, 2025, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
  • Potential Democratic contenders have not declared formal campaigns and are centering efforts on early fundraising and national visibility.
  • Vance also commands a significant advantage in GOP primary surveys, outperforming Donald Trump Jr., Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio.
  • Analysts caution that polls conducted years before an election offer only a preliminary snapshot as candidate fields and voter preferences can evolve.