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yesterday

Vance Dominates North Carolina GOP Primary Poll as Markets Back His 2028 Bid

National wagering of nearly $4 million underscores widespread expectations that Vance will secure the Republican nomination with Gavin Newsom leading on the Democratic side.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris and then Vice President-elect, JD Vance can be seen departing the White House ahead of the Inauguration of then President-elect Donald Trump on January 20, 2025, in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
Vice President JD Vance attends the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on July 15, 2024.

Overview

  • An Emerson College survey of North Carolina voters shows Vice President J.D. Vance commanding 53 percent support among likely Republican primary voters.
  • In the same state poll, Pete Buttigieg leads Democratic primary preferences at 17 percent, followed by Kamala Harris at 12 percent and Gavin Newsom at 10 percent.
  • Polymarket traders have staked almost $4 million on the 2028 race, assigning Vance a 28 percent chance to win the presidency and Newsom 15 percent.
  • Kalshi betting markets mirror these trends by giving Vance a 54 percent chance to win the GOP nomination and Newsom a 20 percent chance on the Democratic side.
  • Kamala Harris’s decision not to run for California governor briefly lifted her 2028 presidential odds from about 2.3 percent to 3.7 percent before settling near 3.3 percent.